11 MAY, MORNING Chairmen: K. Shimazaki & M. Wyss
8:00 Yamaoka Koshun and Toru Ooida
Detailed distribution of accelerating foreshock activity obtained with a temporal network before M5.1 earthquake in central Japan
8:20 Reasenberg Paul
Modeling Foreshock-Mainshock Occurrence with a Generic Aftershock Model
8:40 Maeda Kenji
Stacked Time Distribution of Immediate Foreshocks
9:00 Chen Yong
Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences
9:20 Jaume Steven and L. R. Sykes
Evolving Towards a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquakes
9:40 tea
10:20 Rundle John
Modeling of foreshocks and aftershocks as critical phenomena fluctuations
10:40 Ogata Yoshihiko
Does an aftershock sequence provide useful information to forecast major earthquakes in the neighborhood?
11:00 Matsumura Shozo
Monitoring tectonic change by observing microearthquakes
11:20 Ohtake Masakazu
Seasonality of Great Earthquakes in the Northwestern Margin of the Philippine Sea Plate
11:40 Ito Akihiko
Microearthquake activity in Nikko region -precise hypocenter determination by a cross-spectral analysis-
SIGHTSEEING AT INDIVIDUAL INITIATIVE
11 MAY, AFTERNOON Chairmen: Y. Chen & T. Yamashita
14:50 Wyss Max and Stefan Wiemer
Evaluating our Understanding of the Earthquake Generating Process, or Common Sense Versus Artificial Intelligence: The Case of a Seismic Gap in the Aleutians.
15:10 Hori Takane and Kazuo Oike
A physical mechanism for temporal variation in seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough
15:30 Shimazaki Kunihiko
Variability and invariability of earthquake recurrence in the Nankai trough, Japan
15:50 tea
16:20 Kato Naoyuki
The variation of stresses due to aseismic sliding and its effect on seismic activity.
16:40 Zschau J., M. Westerhaus, H. Woith and F. Roth
On the possibility of large scale changes of seismicity patterns prior to major earthquakes
17:00 Katsumata Kei and Minoru Kasahara
Seismic quiescence and vertical crustal deformation anomaly prior to 1994 Hokkaido Toho-Oki earthquake (Mw=8.3)
17:20 Console Rodolfo, C. Montuori and M. Murru
Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Central Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?
17:40 Zuniga Ramon
Can Natural and Artificial Anomalies be Discriminated? The Seismicity Record in the Guerrero Gap Region, from 1989 to 1996.
11 MAY, EVENING Chairmen: J. Dieterich & K. Yamaoka
19:30 Discussion lead by Ogata & Reasenberg
Foreshocks, their recognition and properties
12 MAY, MORNING Chairmen: A. Ito & J. Rundle
8:00 Yamashita Teruo
Mechanical effect of fluid migration on the spatio-temporal complexity of seismicity
8:20 Miller Stephen
The physical basis for some scaling relationships of a fluid-controlled fault model
8:40 Matsuura Ritsuko
Temporal Pattern of Dependent Shocks Show the State of the Place
9:00 Imoto Masajiro, K. Maeda and A. Yoshida
Use of statistical models to analyze periodic seismicity observed for clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan
9:20 Zheng Zhaobi
The Seismic pattern before the southern Yellow sea earthquake (M=6.1, 9 Nov. 1996) in China
9:40 tea
10:20 Kossobokov V. G.
A spatial measure of seismicity
10:40 Kossobokov V. G.
The M8 algorithm and recent magnitude 8.0 and above earthquakes
11:00 Rhoades D. A. and F. F. Evison
Performance tests and development of the precursory swarm hypothesis
11:20 Liu Jie, Chen Yong, Shi Yaolin, D. Vere-Jones
Couple stress release model for time dependent seismicity
11:40 Shaw Bruce E.
Chaos and the next big one: Forecasting in elastodynamic earthquake models
11 MAY, AFTERNOON Chairmen: R. Console & M. Imoto
13:40 Dieterich James, Valrie Cayol and Paul Okubo
Application of a Constitutive Formulation for Earthquake Rates to Earthquake Clustering and Estimation of Stress Changes
14:00 Utsu Tokuji
Size Distribution of Earthquakes: A Brief Historical Review and Some New Approaches
14:20 Wiemer Stefan and Max Wyss
Seismicity rate changes and spatial b-value variations along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, Northern California, 1970- 1998.
15:00 Henderson J. R., D. J. Barton, G. R. Foulger and I. G. Main
Correlations between b-value and fractal dimension in induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal field.
15:20 tea
16:00 Kagan Yan
Universality of the seismic moment-frequency relation
16:20 Yoshida Akio and Stefan Wiemer
Comprehensive Monitoring of the Tokai region, Central Japan, for Earthquake Prediction Purposes: An Overview
Discussion Chairmen: T. Utsu & B. Shaw
17:00 Discussion lead by Ohtake & Kagan
Can earthquakes be predicted?
18:30 Dinner and Koto Music Performance