SEISMICITY PATTERNS, THEIR STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND PHYSICAL MEANING NIKKO, JAPAN, 11/12 May 1998

11 MAY, MORNING Chairmen: K. Shimazaki & M. Wyss

8:00 Yamaoka Koshun and Toru Ooida

Detailed distribution of accelerating foreshock activity obtained with a temporal network before M5.1 earthquake in central Japan

8:20 Reasenberg Paul

Modeling Foreshock-Mainshock Occurrence with a Generic Aftershock Model

8:40 Maeda Kenji

Stacked Time Distribution of Immediate Foreshocks

9:00 Chen Yong

Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences

9:20 Jaume Steven and L. R. Sykes

Evolving Towards a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquakes

9:40 tea

10:20 Rundle John

Modeling of foreshocks and aftershocks as critical phenomena fluctuations

10:40 Ogata Yoshihiko

Does an aftershock sequence provide useful information to forecast major earthquakes in the neighborhood?

11:00 Matsumura Shozo

Monitoring tectonic change by observing microearthquakes

11:20 Ohtake Masakazu

Seasonality of Great Earthquakes in the Northwestern Margin of the Philippine Sea Plate

11:40 Ito Akihiko

Microearthquake activity in Nikko region -precise hypocenter determination by a cross-spectral analysis-

SIGHTSEEING AT INDIVIDUAL INITIATIVE

11 MAY, AFTERNOON Chairmen: Y. Chen & T. Yamashita

14:50 Wyss Max and Stefan Wiemer

Evaluating our Understanding of the Earthquake Generating Process, or Common Sense Versus Artificial Intelligence: The Case of a Seismic Gap in the Aleutians.

15:10 Hori Takane and Kazuo Oike

A physical mechanism for temporal variation in seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough

15:30 Shimazaki Kunihiko

Variability and invariability of earthquake recurrence in the Nankai trough, Japan

15:50 tea

16:20 Kato Naoyuki

The variation of stresses due to aseismic sliding and its effect on seismic activity.

16:40 Zschau J., M. Westerhaus, H. Woith and F. Roth

On the possibility of large scale changes of seismicity patterns prior to major earthquakes

17:00 Katsumata Kei and Minoru Kasahara

Seismic quiescence and vertical crustal deformation anomaly prior to 1994 Hokkaido Toho-Oki earthquake (Mw=8.3)

17:20 Console Rodolfo, C. Montuori and M. Murru

Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Central Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?

17:40 Zuniga Ramon

Can Natural and Artificial Anomalies be Discriminated? The Seismicity Record in the Guerrero Gap Region, from 1989 to 1996.

11 MAY, EVENING Chairmen: J. Dieterich & K. Yamaoka

19:30 Discussion lead by Ogata & Reasenberg

Foreshocks, their recognition and properties

12 MAY, MORNING Chairmen: A. Ito & J. Rundle

8:00 Yamashita Teruo

Mechanical effect of fluid migration on the spatio-temporal complexity of seismicity

8:20 Miller Stephen

The physical basis for some scaling relationships of a fluid-controlled fault model

8:40 Matsuura Ritsuko

Temporal Pattern of Dependent Shocks Show the State of the Place

9:00 Imoto Masajiro, K. Maeda and A. Yoshida

Use of statistical models to analyze periodic seismicity observed for clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan

9:20 Zheng Zhaobi

The Seismic pattern before the southern Yellow sea earthquake (M=6.1, 9 Nov. 1996) in China

9:40 tea

10:20 Kossobokov V. G.

A spatial measure of seismicity

10:40 Kossobokov V. G.

The M8 algorithm and recent magnitude 8.0 and above earthquakes

11:00 Rhoades D. A. and F. F. Evison

Performance tests and development of the precursory swarm hypothesis

11:20 Liu Jie, Chen Yong, Shi Yaolin, D. Vere-Jones

Couple stress release model for time dependent seismicity

11:40 Shaw Bruce E.

Chaos and the next big one: Forecasting in elastodynamic earthquake models

11 MAY, AFTERNOON Chairmen: R. Console & M. Imoto

13:40 Dieterich James, Valrie Cayol and Paul Okubo

Application of a Constitutive Formulation for Earthquake Rates to Earthquake Clustering and Estimation of Stress Changes

14:00 Utsu Tokuji

Size Distribution of Earthquakes: A Brief Historical Review and Some New Approaches

14:20 Wiemer Stefan and Max Wyss

Seismicity rate changes and spatial b-value variations along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, Northern California, 1970- 1998.

15:00 Henderson J. R., D. J. Barton, G. R. Foulger and I. G. Main

Correlations between b-value and fractal dimension in induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal field.

15:20 tea

16:00 Kagan Yan

Universality of the seismic moment-frequency relation

16:20 Yoshida Akio and Stefan Wiemer

Comprehensive Monitoring of the Tokai region, Central Japan, for Earthquake Prediction Purposes: An Overview

Discussion Chairmen: T. Utsu & B. Shaw

17:00 Discussion lead by Ohtake & Kagan

Can earthquakes be predicted?

18:30 Dinner and Koto Music Performance