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If we acknowledge the above mechanism as true,
we can predict locations where tsunami earthquakes occur in the
future. It is the place where faults branching from the decollement
cut the trench wedge sediment.
Case a) No tsunami event occur. The trench
wedge sediment does not cover the thrust zone. In the Nankai
Trough, huge out of sequence thrusts meet the sea water directly
(Kuramoto et al., 1999). Historically, we do not know tsunami
earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, except for the 1605 Keicho
tsunami earthquake, which might have broken the shallowest portion
of the decollement and the forntal thrust (personal comm. with
Dr. Katsuhiko Ishibashi, Kobe Univ). Case b) Tsunami events occur.
The trench wedge sediment pushed by the faulting deform severely.
This situation can be seen in the northern Japan Trench (off-Sanriku)
and the south Kuril Trench, and would probably seen in the trench
off Nicaragua and Papua New
Guinea. Case c) No tsunami event occur. Thrusts cut an accretionary
prism and a thick sedimentary wedge above, but the deformation
at the surface would not be localized. Barbados might be an example.
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Ide, S., F. Imamura, Y. Yoshida, and K. Abe, Source characteristics
of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992,Geophys.
Res. Lett., 20, 863-866, 1993.
Kuramoto, S. et al., Japan-US collaborated study on western
Nankai accretionary prism -evolution of accretionary prism and
seismogenic zone imaging -, Abstr. Seism. Soc. Jpn 1999.
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