The 3rd SCEC-ERI joint workshop

“Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas”
“Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes”


March 16-17, 2010
Earthquake Research Institute, Conference Room 1 (Build. 2, 5th floor)
(Access MAP)

Primary Scope

Since 2006, the bilateral international workshops between Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) have provided SCEC and ERI researchers an opportunity to discuss up-to-date results in the field of earth sciences as well as define future direction of research. Topics explored include the mechanical process of the Earth, investigation of seismic and volcanic phenomena from global and local viewpoints, monitoring and computational geoscience, disaster mitigation science, and prediction and forecast of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Host of the workshops has been alternated between SCEC and ERI.

The 3rd SCEC-ERI joint workshop this time will be hosted by ERI at Tokyo on 16-17 March 2009. The proposed scientific program focuses on twofold:

I) Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas
II) Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes

Researches related to the former are domestically conducted under the special project “Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area”, led by ERI. The latter is promoted under the current Japanese “Observation and Research Program for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions (2009-2013)” and associated with the international project “Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)”, initiated by SCEC and cooperated by ERI and others. The topics (I and II) would be emerging global challenges so that participants are expected to be not only ERI and SCEC researchers but also researchers in the world such as Japan, California, China, and Switzerland.

The workshop will cover one and a half day of lectures and discussion. The lectures are by invitation only but all participants are encouraged to participate in the science discussions with the emphasis on future direction of research.

The workshop will be followed by the University of Tokyo International Symposium on “Long-Period Ground Motion and Urban Disaster Mitigation” starting on the afternoon of 17 March 2009, hosted mainly by ERI. Workshop participants are encouraged to consider also attending the symposium.

Invited Speakers

Tom Jordan (SCEC), David Okaya (SCEC), Greg Beroza (SCEC), Ralph Archuleta (SCEC), Danijel Schorlemmer (SCEC), Lisa Grant Ludwig (SCEC)
Jeremy Zechar (ETH)
Qinghua Huang (Peking Univ.)
Kunihiko Shimazaki (AEDP), Yosi Ogata (ISM)

Program (Tentative)

March 16, 2010
0900-0905 Naoshi Hirata (ERI) Greeting and introduction to the SCEC-ERI joint workshop
  I) Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas
0905-0925 Naoshi Hirata (ERI) An Outline of the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area - subproject I: Characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo Metropolitan area
0925-0950 Hiroshi Sato (ERI) Contribution of recent seismic profiling for constructing source fault models in Japanese islands
0950-1015 David Okaya (SCEC) Philippine Sea-Pacific slab interaction as an additional cause for seismicity beneath Kanto
1015-1030   Break
1030-1055 Tom Jordan (SCEC) Full Waveform Physics-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Calculations for Southern California using the SCEC CyberShake Platform
1055-1120 Greg Beroza (SCEC) Seismic Energy: Scaling, Variability, and Implications for High Frequency Ground Motion
1120-1145 Ralph Archuleta (SCEC) Ground motion for kinematic ruptures based on correlated parameters: New correlations from dynamic rupture models
1145-1210 Kazuki Koketsu (ERI) Long-period ground motion and urban disaster mitigation
1210-1240   Science discussion
1240-1400   Lunch
  II) Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes (Part I)
          From Long-term Earthquake Hazards to CSEP Experiments
1400-1425 Kenji Satake (ERI) Recurrence of Kanto earthquakes revealed from tsunami deposits in Miura peninsula
1425-1450 Lisa Grant –Ludwig (SCEC) Recent rupture history of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California, USA
1450-1515 Kunihiko Shimazaki (AEDP) Evaluation of seismic events and earthquake faults with weak surface features
1515-1530   Break
1530-1555 Danijel Schorlemmer (SCEC) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Perspectives on Evaluation and Testing for Seismic Hazard
1555-1620 Jeremy Zechar (ETH) Predictability experiments of earthquakes in Italy
1620-1645 Danijel Schorlemmer (SCEC) Common Dependence on Stress of the two Fundamental Laws of Statistical Seismology: New Earthquake Forecast Models
1645-1710 Yosi Ogata (ISM) Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity
1710-1740   Science discussion
1740-1745 Naoshi Hirata (ERI) Closing remark
1800-2000   Reception (Lounge at the 7th floor of the 1st Building, ERI)
March 17, 2010
  II) Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes (Part II)
          From CSEP Experiments to Operational Earthquake Forecasting
0900-0925 Kunihiko Shimazaki (AEDP) Planning of a public earthquake forecast
0925-0940 Hiroshi Tsuruoka (ERI) Japan CSEP Testing Center - Progress Report
0940-0955 Kazu Z. Nanjo (ERI) Completeness study for the JMA catalog: A Baseline for Rigorous Tests of Earthquake Forecasts for Japan
0955-1020 Jeremy Zechar (ETH) Likelihood-based tests for evaluating earthquake forecasts: statistical power and result stability
1020-1035   Break
1035-1100 Qinghua Huang (Peking Univ.) Earthquake-related electromagnetic study in China
1100-1125 Tom Jordan (SCEC) Prospects for Operational Earthquake Forecasting
1125-1155   Science discussion
1155-1200 Naoshi Hirata (ERI) Closing remark

Naoshi Hirata, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Thomas H. Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angels, USA
Organizing committee:
Kenji Satake, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Shigeki Nakagawa, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Kazu Z. Nanjo, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Last Modified: 2010/04/06

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