Title:

Use of and new directions for ground-motion simulations in U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract:

Ground-motion simulations have been used in seismic hazard
assessments in the United States for more than 20 years. Simulations
provide important complementary information about ground motions from
future earthquakes because observations are limited for large-magnitude
events, short propagation distances, and unique source-site geometries
and effects. I will present a vision for expanding the use of
ground-motion simulations in the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
(NSHM). This framework identifies a long-term goal of directly using
simulated ground motions, while in the short term it emphasizes
combining robust simulation-based features with empirical ground-motion
models. The talk will review how simulations have been used in the NSHM,
with a focus on recent updates that incorporate 3D ground-motion
simulations to account for basin-amplification effects. Finally, I will
present ongoing work that uses simulations to improve the accuracy of
hazard calculations and better constrain associated uncertainties.