Institute: U.S. Geological Survey
Title: Research Geophysist
Country/Region: USA
Period: 2017/-01/07 - 2017/03/29
Theme: Beyesian modeling of effusive-explosive transitions in erupting volcanoes
Host: Takehiro KOYAGUCHI
Introduction: I am a research geophysicist for the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California. Previously, I held a postdoctoral position at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Much of my work is focused on understanding volcanic systems using a combination of physics-based (multiphysical) volcano models and Bayesian, probabilistic statistics. The models I develop relate magma physics with diverse types of observations including ground deformation, eruption rate, and gas emissions. Performing Bayesian analysis using these models together with data from real volcanoes, it is possible to estimate important properties of volcanic systems such as magmatic volatile contents and storage volumes.

To date, I have worked primarily using data from effusive eruptions at Mount St. Helens and Kilauea volcanoes. I am excited to be at ERI to work with Prof. Takehiro Koyaguchi on extending the multiphysical Bayesian modeling approach to eruptions that exhibit explosive or mixed effusive-explosive behavior. The remarkable and well-documented 2011 eruption of Kirishima Volcano serves as an excellent application for this approach, and we hope will enable improved understanding of the volcanic system. A long-term goal is a general Bayesian modeling approach suitable for interpreting a wide variety of data sets from explosive volcanic eruptions.
Fiscal Year: 2016