金曜セミナー Dr. Kyle Anderson(USGS)

August 28th (FRI) 16:00-17:00 Conference Room 1 (5th floor, 2nd Building of ERI)


Kyle Anderson (USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)


Multiphysical probabilistic modeling of volcanic systems: Magma supply,
storage and volatile content at Kilauea Volcano and Mount St. Helens


Researchers have made great progress understanding volcanic systems by
interpreting data using remarkably simple models. For instance, geodetic
data is typically inverted using kinematic models of volume changes in
elastic media; this technique yields important constraint on the locations
of magma reservoirs, but these simple models cannot directly shed light on
properties of magma in the system, even when additional observations such as
gas emissions, lava effusion rate, and gravity changes are available. At the
other extreme, very sophisticated models of volcanic eruptions are
available, but are typically poorly constrained by data because they
directly predict few observations. In this talk I will discuss the
development of multiphysical (physics-based) models of volcanic eruptions
which can directly link magmatic processes with diverse, time-varying
observations including ground deformation, lava effusion rate, and gas
emissions. When used in a Bayesian inverse procedure, such models make it
possible to simultaneously bring all available information (including
independent observations from petrology and other disciplines) to bear on
estimating properties of the volcanic system, as well as forecasting future
behavior. We have used this approach to place constraints on the magma
supply rate, primary melt volatile content, and the total volume of the
magma reservoir at Mount St. Helens, Washington, during the 2004-2008
eruption, and the magma supply and storage rates, volume of shallow magma
storage, and volatile content of the magma at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii.